Simandou moved from prospect to active supply in late 2025, with the first commercial iron ore shipment departing Guinea in early December and arriving in China on 17 January 2026 after a 46 day voyage, carrying about 200,000 tonnes at 65% iron content.
The early ramp up has already faced operational friction, with production suspended for one month in February following a fatal accident at the SimFer site, while overall targets remain 5 to 6 million tonnes for 2026 and 60 million tonnes per year by 2028.
By early March, cumulative shipments reached about 1 million tonnes with additional cargoes loading and en route, while SimFer shipped 600,000 tonnes during Q1 and stockpiled 2.1 million tonnes of crushed ore at the mine gate by end Q1.
Rio Tinto confirmed the first full SimFer shipment was delivered to China and noted Pilbara shipments were disrupted by around 8 million tonnes due to tropical cyclones, with roughly half expected to be recovered.
The report frames 2026 as a gradual expansion year, with Simandou exports expected around 16 million tonnes, but with ramp up shaped by infrastructure and logistics constraints and near term pressure more likely falling on Australia than Brazil.
Capesize average earnings were $38,800/day with the BCI up 4% w o w to 4,282. Panamax average earnings were $17,600/day with the BPI down 1% w o w to 1,960. Supramax average earnings were $19,400/day with the BSI up 8.5% w o w to 1,535. Handysize average earnings were $14,350/day with the BHI up 7.5% w o w to 797.
Capesize stayed firm on South Brazil and West Africa to China, with C3 in the low to mid $32s per ton and a 175,300 dwt fixed Tubarao with a West Africa option to Qingdao at $30.8 per ton.
Panamax softened as tonnage built and transatlantic grain demand weakened, with an 82,100 dwt fixed delivery Barcelona via NCSA redelivery Singapore Japan at $23,000/day.
Supramax improved in the US Gulf and South Atlantic, with a 63,000 dwt fixed from the US Gulf for a transatlantic run to Turkey at $33,000/day.
Handysize firmed on tight April tonnage in the US Gulf and South America, with a 37,000 dwt fixed from the US Gulf with scrap for redelivery Peru at $12,500/day.
Capesize stayed firmer overall with C5 trading around the low $13s per ton, with an 181,100 dwt fixed delivery North China for a trip within the Pacific at $31,500/day.
Panamax held comparatively firmer on healthier Australia, Indonesia and NoPac cargo flow, with an 81,000 dwt fixed open Shanghai for a North Pacific trip to Singapore Japan with petcoke at $21,000/day.
Supramax gained on tighter prompt tonnage and firmer enquiry in North Asia and Southeast Asia, with a 57,000 dwt fixed for a trip via Vietnam to the Continent at $18,000/day for the first 65 days and $21,000/day thereafter.
Handysize remained supported on tight prompt tonnage and improving enquiry, with a 38,000 dwt open Inchon fixed for a trip to Southeast Asia at $16,000/day.
VLCC rates were mixed, with TD15 West Africa to China at $104,300/day and US Gulf to China assessed at $100,200/day, while TD3C ME Gulf to China firmed to $453,000/day.
Suezmax improved in the Atlantic, with TD20 West Africa to Continent at $98,909/day and TD27 Guyana to UK Continent at $104,240/day.
Aframax stabilised in the Atlantic, with TD25 US Gulf to Continent at $97,800/day and TD26 East Coast Mexico to US Gulf at $134,100/day, while TD19 cross Med eased to $103,000/day.
LR held firm with TC20 ME Gulf to UK Continent at $146,800/day and TC5 ME Gulf to Japan at $131,200/day, while TC1 ME Gulf to Japan softened to $153,500/day.
MR weakened in the Atlantic, with TC21 US Gulf to Caribs at $61,100/day and TC2 Continent to US Atlantic Coast at $26,413/day.
VLCC remained elevated in the MEG, with TD3C ME Gulf to China at $453,000/day despite ongoing distortion from Hormuz uncertainty.
Suezmax East of Suez activity remained limited and theoretical, leaving the basin sensitive to any change in regional disruption.
Aframax cross Med stayed softer at $103,000/day with sentiment fragile despite a clearer list.
LR rates stayed firm overall in the Pacific, with TC1 at $153,500/day and TC5 at $131,200/day.
MR TC7 Singapore to East Coast Australia softened to $44,394/day.
Over the past twelve months, Greek interests remained the leading sellers with 323 vessels sold across sectors, versus 148 sales by Chinese sellers, with Greek selling led by 153 dry bulk and 121 tankers and China led by 97 dry bulk and 32 tankers.
On the buying side, China ranked first with 219 purchases and Greece followed with 217, with Chinese buying led by 165 dry bulk and 42 tankers and Greek buying led by 115 dry bulk and 75 tankers, alongside 20 container acquisitions and 2 gas carrier purchases.
This post provides a high-level overview of Simandou’s early supply impact, iron ore trade dynamics, and current freight market performance.
The full Allied QuantumSea Weekly Market Report – Week 17 includes:
In-depth Simandou ramp-up analysis and Guinea export development
Iron ore trade flow implications for Australia, Brazil & China demand
Infrastructure, logistics and supply-side constraints shaping near-term volumes
Detailed dry bulk and tanker earnings tables across all vessel classes
Atlantic & Pacific route-level freight analysis with fixture benchmarks
Baltic indices, TCE calculations & historical performance comparisons
Secondhand S&P transactions, buyer–seller positioning & asset value trends
Recycling activity and scrap pricing indicators
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