Dry bulk strengthened across all four vessel sizes in Week 39, led by Panamax, with the Baltic Dry Index rising 1.7% to 3,426. Tanker gains were concentrated in Aframax and clean products, while VLCC and Suezmax earnings eased slightly from exceptional levels. Secondhand activity shifted towards smaller bulkers and MR tankers. Recovering Saudi crude exports remained central to the freight outlook, as constrained passages and transfer operations continued to absorb vessel capacity.
Saudi crude exports are recovering through both Hormuz and Yanbu, but vessel productivity remains constrained. Preliminary tracking recorded 19 Saudi-linked VLCC transits through Hormuz during 14–20 September, versus five the previous week. September oil shipments through the strait were estimated at 7.4 million barrels/day, still well below the pre-conflict level of about 20 million barrels/day. These measures cover different flows and remain subject to revision.
Reported East-West Pipeline throughput reached about 3.5 million barrels/day on 28 September, half its 7 million barrels/day nameplate capacity. Saudi Aramco had not confirmed the figure, and the allocation between refineries and export storage was undisclosed. Renewed Yanbu loadings still face onward-passage constraints: war-risk premiums for Saudi-linked tankers were quoted around 3% of vessel value, versus below 1% in early July. Avoiding Bab el-Mandeb by sailing north through Suez and around southern Africa to Asia adds approximately 22 days.
Ship-to-ship transfers near Oman rose to approximately 2.5 million barrels/day in September from 1.4 million in August. Separate shuttle and ocean-going vessels increase positioning, waiting and transfer time for the same cargo. The pressure extends to Suezmax and Aframax employment as Atlantic replacement barrels compete for capacity. Easing weekly bunker prices have therefore brought limited relief: higher export volumes can sustain tanker demand while security exposure and lost productive time keep freight elevated.
Capesize TCE earnings edged up 0.3% to $48,954/day and the BCI rose 0.3% to 5,784. Atlantic transatlantic and fronthaul fixtures softened, although C7 Bolivar–Rotterdam gained 7%. Pacific C5 West Australia–Qingdao fell 6%, with Rio Tinto fixing 170,000 tonnes Dampier–Qingdao for 13–15 October at $15.60/ton. C3 Tubarao–Qingdao eased 1%.
Stronger mineral demand and fewer available Atlantic ships supported transatlantic and fronthaul business. Panamax TCE earnings and the BPI each gained 6.9%, to $21,662/day and 2,407. Later-October East Coast South America demand improved, while early-October positions remained more negotiable. Australian coal enquiry supported the Pacific; P3A Pacific rounds gained 5%, against a 15% rise in P1A Atlantic rounds.
Prompt East Coast South America tonnage remained tight, although the US Gulf list lengthened. Supramax TCE earnings rose 1.2% to $20,545/day and the BSI gained 1.1% to 1,786, both 12-month highs. In the Pacific, S2 rounds added 1% and S15 Indonesia–Far East 3%. SSI DISCOVERY, 63,712 dwt, fixed a nickel-ore trip from Koh Sichang via New Caledonia to the Far East at $25,000/day.
Restricted prompt supply in East Coast South America supported Handysize, while US Gulf conditions softened. TCE earnings and the BHSI each rose 2.3%, to $18,190/day and 1,011, both 12-month highs. Skaw–US Gulf gained 10%, Skaw–Rio 8% and US Gulf–Skaw 4%, according to the report’s commentary and chart. Southeast Asia–Australia/Japan slipped 1%.
VLCC TCE earnings eased 1.2% to $714,143/day. Arabian Gulf and Red Sea lists gradually rebuilt as later-week activity slowed, although short-term positions remained tight. West African enquiry was limited and the US Gulf list also lengthened as charterers considered smaller ships. TD15 West Africa–China fell 4% and TD3C Middle East Gulf–China 1%; TD22 US Gulf–China was unchanged.
High VLCC rates diverted eastern demand towards Suezmax vessels, but TCE earnings eased 1.4% to $299,424/day. In the Atlantic, Bonny–Rotterdam was assessed near WS445, while Mediterranean TD6 repeated WS500. TD20 West Africa–UK Continent declined 3% and TD23 Arabian Gulf–Mediterranean 2%, showing a modest correction within a still elevated market.
Aframax TCE earnings surged 44.5% to a 12-month high of $234,370/day. Asian lists remained tight, with Indonesia–Australia assessed for 80,000 tonnes at WS410. Atlantic availability tightened as North Sea ships ballasted towards longer Mediterranean–UK Continent voyages. TD7 North Sea–Continent gained 66%; Mediterranean TD19 was assessed at WS645 and TD7 near WS425.
Arabian Gulf LR lists remained thin, with uncovered cargoes in both sizes. TC1 LR2 Arabian Gulf–Japan was on subjects at 75,000 tonnes at WS470, and TC5 LR1 at 55,000 tonnes at WS500. At least 100 coated LR2s remained in dirty service. Atlantic eastbound naphtha economics improved, although weak Asian petrochemical demand limited activity. A West Coast India–UK Continent LR2 voyage via Bab el-Mandeb was on subjects at $9.5 million.
The Pacific MR basket gained 15.3% to a 12-month high of $70,623/day, while the Atlantic basket rose 38.0% to $39,287/day. Forward October fixing absorbed eastern ships, with TC17 Arabian Gulf–East Africa reaching WS550 on subjects by Friday. Outstanding UK Continent cargoes and firmer US Gulf exports supported the Atlantic. The TC18 US Gulf–Brazil assessment stood at WS299 and $35,250/day.
Dry bulk sales slowed to 12 reported vessels from 15 the previous week, with at least $159.2 million invested across ten priced sales. Activity comprised four Handysize, three Panamax/Kamsarmax, three Supramax, one Post-Panamax and one small bulker. Chinese buyers took LC MILADY, 93,758 dwt, for a reported $14.5 million and CS CALLA for $11 million. Greek buyers acquired GENEVA STAR for $17 million, PROMETHEUS 1 for $19 million and CELESTE for $11.1 million.
Tanker activity increased to 19 reported vessels from 11, led by nine MRs and four VLCCs, alongside two Suezmax, two Aframax/LR2, one LR1 and one small tanker. At least $1.008 billion was invested across 17 priced sales. Greek buyers took the 2027-build Suezmax DAEHAN 5112 for $106.5 million and MRs SEA RUNNER and DYLAN for $20.5 million and $19.5 million. US-based buyers acquired VLCCs ATHERINA and KALLISTA for $146 million and $148 million. These weekly counts cover the vessels reported in the S&P section.
Through 25 September 2026, the report recorded 1,297 secondhand sales totalling 112.9 million dwt: 584 dry bulk, 487 tankers, 124 containers, 48 gas carriers and 54 other vessels. Dry bulk comprised 225 Supra/Ultramax, 129 Pana/Kamsarmax, 127 Handysize, 58 Capesize/VLOC, 43 Post-Panamax and two small bulkers. Tankers comprised 147 MR, 120 VLCC, 69 small tankers, 58 Suezmax/LR3, 55 Aframax/LR2 and 38 Panamax/LR1.
The separate past-twelve-month nationality table records 237 Greek purchases and 220 Chinese purchases, versus 327 Greek sales and 165 Chinese sales. Greek purchases included 115 dry bulk vessels and 96 tankers; Chinese purchases included 169 dry bulk vessels and 37 tankers. These rolling figures are not 2026 YTD totals.
This roundup examines Saudi crude export recovery, its implications for tanker availability, freight by vessel size and secondhand investment.
The full Allied QuantumSea Weekly Market Report – Week 39 includes:
· Saudi export recovery through Hormuz and the East-West Pipeline to Yanbu
· Red Sea war-risk costs, passage constraints and Oman ship-to-ship transfers
· The wider implications for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax employment
· Dry bulk and tanker earnings, indices, route movements and reported fixtures
· Secondhand transactions, vessel values, 2026 activity and past-twelve-month nationality statistics
· Newbuilding and recycling market data
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