Coal remains a core cargo for dry bulk chartering and a key anchor for repeatable demand, even as policy debate around the energy transition grows louder. Seaborne coal trade softened during 2025, driven mainly by higher domestic production in key consuming countries and lower import needs, which points to trade rebalancing rather than a sharp drop in usage.
Policy discussion is rising but remains forward looking, with no globally binding measures that restrict existing coal production in the near term, so volumes continue to be shaped by established mines, infrastructure, and long term contracts.
The bigger freight risk is gradual and less visible, with transition framing influencing investment, infrastructure planning, and contracting, which can reduce spot activity and limit demand surges in a market already facing fleet growth and low vessel recycling activity.
At the same time, iron ore dependence remains a concentration risk for larger vessels, where any disruption would have an outsized impact on freight fundamentals.
Capesize average earnings were $26,500/day and the BCI was down 17% w o w. Panamax average earnings were $14,900/day and the BPI was down 5% w o w. Supramax average earnings were $14,000/day and the BSI was up 3.5% w o w. Handysize average earnings were $11,500/day and the BHI was up 3.3% w o w.
Dry Atlantic Analysis – Week 06 2026
Capesize stayed subdued in South Brazil and West Africa to China, with C3 ending around $26.00/ton and an Itaguaí to Qingdao fixed at $23.8/ton.
Panamax softened as enquiry stayed limited and fronthaul was muted, with an ECSA grains trip to Skaw Gibraltar fixed at $22,500/day. Supramax held firmer in the US Gulf, with a trip to Singapore Japan fixed in the low $16,000s/day plus a low $600,000s ballast bonus. Handysize stayed supported by firmer US Gulf and South Atlantic demand, with Houston via Texas to Nador fixed at $19,000/day.
Capesize trading slowed into the close on a wait and see stance, with Port Hedland to Qingdao fixed at $8.5/ton and C5 ending around $8.4/ton. Panamax cargo cover thinned and a two tier market persisted, with a Kunsan NoPac trip redelivery China Japan fixed in the upper $14,000s/day.
Supramax demand eased for backhaul and NoPac, with China to Southeast Asia fixed at $8,000/day. Handysize was quiet ahead of the holiday period with limited fixing, including an open Sitra trip to West Australia at $7,000/day.
VLCC sentiment stayed sensitive to headlines with uneven fixing flow and selective availability, with TD15 assessed at WS124 and average earnings a little short of $107,200/day.
Suezmax levels were supported early by West basin list trimming before mixed execution, with TD20 at WS154 on average earnings just shy of $68,000/day and TD27 around WS155 on average earnings just under $70,000/day.
Aframax saw the North Sea correct from prior highs while the Med moved sideways, with TD25 at WS277 averaging $76,600/day and TD26 at WS307 averaging $94,000/day. LR softened in the MEG as fixing pace slowed, with TC1 assessed at WS190 averaging $44,000/day and TC20 assessed at $4.3m.
MR tightened West of Suez on disruption and uncertain itineraries, with TC2 assessed at WS153 averaging $12,300/day and TC21 assessed at $1.8m.
VLCC TD3C was assessed at WS137 with average earnings at $123,000/day, with owners testing resistance on prompt dates and late week activity reported. Suezmax remained sensitive to CPC linked headlines and replacement chatter, with owners weighing Med exposure against Atlantic alternatives.
Aframax TD19 was assessed at WS245 with average earnings about $88,100/day, with timing and port delays central to fixing decisions. LR levels eased across MEG segments, with the Med East run steadier on the week despite softer sentiment. MR eased East of Suez as prompt availability improved and sentiment was guided by list length into the close.
Over the past twelve months, Greek interests led selling with 302 vessels across sectors versus 135 sales by Chinese sellers. Greek selling was led by 144 dry bulk and 109 tankers, plus 39 containers and 4 gas carriers, while Chinese selling comprised 83 dry bulk, 35 tankers, 9 containers and 5 gas carriers.
On the buying side, China ranked first with 224 purchases and Greece followed with 182, with Chinese buying led by 162 dry bulk and 47 tankers and Greek buying led by 107 dry bulk and 52 tankers alongside 17 container acquisitions.
This post provides a high-level view of coal’s role in dry bulk demand and current freight market performance across segments.
The full Allied QuantumSea Weekly Market Report – Week 06 includes:
· In-depth coal trade analysis and policy versus market reality assessment
· Iron ore concentration risk and large vessel exposure analysis
· Detailed dry bulk earnings tables across all vessel classes
· Atlantic & Pacific route-level freight breakdowns
· Dirty & clean tanker market benchmarks with TCE calculations
· Baltic indices, historical performance comparisons & trend charts
· Newbuilding, orderbook and fleet growth indicators
· Secondhand S&P transactions, buyer–seller positioning & asset value trends
· Recycling activity and scrap pricing benchmarks
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