China’s coal position remains central to dry bulk demand, even as renewable capacity continues to expand. The new five year energy plan keeps coal as a bottom line guarantee for electricity security, with coal used as a flexible backstop when renewable output weakens.
Coal fired output rose again in early 2026, supported by the large number of new plants added since 2024 and minimum use contracts that keep coal competing directly with renewables.
China is also reviving coal chemicals through coal to gas, coal to liquids and petrochemical routes, linking coal use to energy security and industrial substitution for imported oil and gas. Seaborne coal imports into China are softer so far in 2026, with tracked arrivals down from last year, while Indonesia remains the main supplier and Australia and Russia have both declined.
Capesize average earnings were $33,000/day, with the BCI at 3,640 down 12% w o w. Panamax average earnings were $19,000/day, with the BPI at 2,110 up 1% w o w. Supramax average earnings were $21,100/day, with the BSI at 1,670 down 3% w o w. Handysize average earnings were $17,000/day, with the BHSI at 945 up 1% w o w.
Capesize South Brazil and West Africa to China came under pressure as the cargo list thinned and ballasters increased, with C3 at $28.08/ton and a 176,000 dwt fixed Tubarao to Qingdao at $32.50/ton.
Panamax strengthened on tighter North Continent tonnage and firmer transatlantic and fronthaul cargo, with an 82,000 dwt fixed for a transatlantic cargo from East Coast South America at $32,000/day.
Supramax stayed stronger overall, although US Gulf activity tapered off, with a 63,000 dwt fixed for a scrap run to the East Mediterranean at $23,000/day.
Handysize held a firm Atlantic tone on South Atlantic and US Gulf support, with a 38,000 dwt fixed Fazendinha to the Continent at $24,000/day.
Capesize miner activity stayed steady but failed to support rates, with C5 at $10.16/ton and a 170,000 dwt fixed Dampier to Qingdao at $11.65/ton.
Panamax early weakness stabilised as owners resisted lower bids and activity improved, with an 80,000 dwt fixed in China for Australia to Singapore Japan at $14,250/day.
Supramax remained pressured by limited coal enquiry and weaker southern activity, with a 63,000 dwt fixed from North China for a NoPac voyage at $18,500/day.
Handysize stayed balanced but quieter in Asia, with a 30,000 dwt fixed Kaohsiung to West Coast India with redelivery Penang at $17,000/day.
Wet Atlantic Analysis – Week 26 2026
VLCC fell from elevated levels, with TD15 West Africa to China at $155,400/day and TD22 US Gulf to China at $139,100/day.
Suezmax surged on a tight Atlantic position list and consistent enquiry, with TD20 West Africa to UK Continent at $112,300/day and TD27 Guyana to UK Continent at $117,800/day.
Aframax firmed in the US Gulf, with TD25 US Gulf to Continent at $42,700/day and TD26 East Coast Mexico to US Gulf at $43,300/day, while TD19 cross Med fell to $32,700/day.
LR firmed, with TC20 ME Gulf to UK Continent at $133,000/day.
MR was mixed, with TC2 Continent to US Atlantic Coast at $3,500/day and TC21 US Gulf to Caribs at $13,700/day.
Wet Pacific Analysis – Week 26 2026
VLCC corrected in the ME Gulf, with TD3C ME Gulf to China at $287,200/day and TD34 Gulf of Oman to China at WS 220, equivalent to $32.49/ton.
Suezmax East of Suez activity remained slow as uncertainty around Strait of Hormuz passage persisted.
LR routes firmed, with TC1 ME Gulf to Japan at $138,400/day and TC5 ME Gulf to Japan at $101,200/day.
MR edged higher in the Far East, with TC7 Singapore to East Coast Australia at $28,700/day.
Over the past twelve months, Greece led secondhand selling with 316 vessels across sectors, versus 166 sales by Chinese sellers. Greek sales were led by 164 dry bulk and 116 tankers, plus 22 containers and 9 gas carriers, while Chinese sales comprised 114 dry bulk, 33 tankers, 9 containers and 5 gas carriers. On the buying side, Greece recorded 227 purchases and China followed with 213, with Greek buying led by 120 dry bulk and 81 tankers, while Chinese buying was led by 165 dry bulk and 34 tankers.
This post provides a high-level view of China’s evolving coal strategy, dry bulk demand fundamentals, and current freight market performance.
The full Allied QuantumSea Weekly Market Report – Week 26 includes:
· In-depth analysis of China’s coal policy, power generation & industrial demand outlook
· Assessment of coal import trends and implications for dry bulk trade flows
· Market insights into the role of energy security in shaping long-term seaborne demand
· Detailed dry bulk and tanker earnings tables across all vessel classes
· Atlantic & Pacific route-level freight analysis with fixture benchmarks
· Baltic indices, TCE calculations & historical trend comparisons
· Secondhand S&P transactions, buyer–seller positioning & asset value trends
· Recycling activity and scrap pricing indicators
👉 Fill in the form below to subscribe and receive the complete PDF directly in your inbox every week.