January 2026 grain trade developments were shaped mainly by Black Sea security and operating conditions rather than changes in agricultural supply or export infrastructure. Ukrainian grain exports continued via the maritime corridor from Odesa region ports, but shipment execution was less regular than a year ago, with January 2026 export volumes reported at roughly half of January 2025 levels, reflecting operational friction and constraints across ports, energy and inland logistics rather than a loss of capacity. Russia continued exporting grain at scale from established Black Sea ports under relatively stable logistics conditions, with compliance checks remaining relevant. U.S. mediated talks in Abu Dhabi ended without any agreement affecting Black Sea maritime operations, while war risk insurance conditions tightened, raising cost uncertainty and reinforcing cautious participation.
Across the dry cargo market, Capesize average earnings were $23,450 per day with the BCI up 16% w o w. Panamax average earnings were $14,500 per day with the BPI up 11% w o w. Supramax average earnings were $13,000 per day with the BSI up 6% w o w. Handysize average earnings were $10,800 per day with the BHI up 2% w o w.
Capesize South Brazil and West Africa to China softened midweek, with C3 easing toward $21 per ton, including a 182,000 dwt fixed Tubarao to Qingdao at $20.50 per ton. Panamax was supported by fronthaul, including an 82,000 dwt fixed from Singapore for grains via ECSA to Singapore Japan at $16,750 per day. Supramax held a firmer tone in the US Gulf, including a 62,000 dwt fixed delivery APS Nueva Palmira for grains redelivery South Korea at $15,000 per day plus a $500,000 ballast bonus. Handysize stayed positional with limited uplift in fresh demand, including a 37,000 dwt fixed delivery SW Pass for a trip to Acajutla at $17,500 per day.
Capesize steady miner participation met ample prompt tonnage, with C5 moving from the mid to high $8s into the high $7s, including a 181,000 dwt fixed Port Hedland to Qingdao at $8.20 per ton. Panamax sentiment improved into the close, including an 82,000 dwt fixed basis Nagoya with redelivery PMO at $15,500 per day. Supramax activity remained selective, including a 57,000 dwt fixed delivery Singapore for a trip via Indonesia to CJK at $7,000 per day. Handysize West Coast Australia grain runs provided support, including a 40,000 dwt fixed delivery West Coast Australia for a trip to China at $15,500 per day with grain.
VLCC rates were supported by steady fixing momentum and tighter prompt availability, with TD15 assessed at WS117 averaging $91,500 per day. Suezmax was influenced by CPC related disruption with TD20 at WS150 averaging $71,400 per day and TD27 around WS138 averaging $70,250 per day. Aframax remained strongest in the Mediterranean with TD19 at WS259 averaging $98,000 per day and Atlantic benchmarks firm with TD25 at WS280 averaging $93,000 per day and TD26 at WS327 averaging $109,000 per day. LR2 TC20 was assessed at $4.5m averaging $42,000 per day and MR benchmarks cooled with TC21 averaging $18,811 per day and TC2 assessed at WS118.
VLCC TD3C was assessed at WS127 averaging $95,000 per day, with levels easing slightly into the week’s close as the market tested lower late week.
Clean markets reset after the earlier rally with LR2 TC1 at WS202.5 averaging $49,900 per day and LR1 TC5 at WS211 averaging $35,500 per day, while MR TC7 averaged $28,800 per day with MEG trading active early before easing from peak levels.
Over the past twelve months, Greek interests led selling with 301 vessels across sectors, versus 135 for Chinese sellers. Greek selling was led by 140 dry bulk and 111 tankers, plus 40 containers and 4 gas carriers, while Chinese selling comprised 83 dry bulk, 35 tankers, 9 containers and 5 gas carriers. On the buying side, China ranked first with 229 purchases and Greece followed with 189, with Chinese buying led by 163 dry bulk and 51 tankers and Greek buying led by 110 dry bulk and 56 tankers alongside 17 container acquisitions.
This post provides a high-level snapshot of Black Sea grain trade conditions and current freight market performance.
The full Allied QuantumSea Weekly Market Report includes:
· In-depth Black Sea security and operational analysis affecting grain trade
· Detailed assessment of Ukrainian and Russian export execution and logistics constraints
· War risk insurance, compliance, and cost impact analysis
· Full dry bulk earnings tables across all vessel classes
· Route-level Atlantic & Pacific freight coverage with fixture examples
· Dirty & clean tanker market benchmarks and earnings analysis
· Baltic indices, TCE tables & historical trend comparisons
· Secondhand S&P activity, buyer–seller positioning & asset value trends
· Recycling market activity and scrap pricing benchmarks
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