Disruption risk around the Strait of Hormuz is spilling beyond energy into fertiliser supply chains, agriculture, and dry bulk shipping.
The Gulf is a major export hub for urea and sulphur related flows, so tighter operating conditions can translate quickly into higher costs and weaker trade flow visibility even if production does not change. Asian importers sit at the centre of demand, while Brazil remains exposed through fertiliser imports and the lagged impact of higher input costs on planting economics.
Vessel tracking in the report points to a sharp slowdown in dry bulk movements through the Strait during the escalation, with many dry cargo vessels still reported inside the Gulf and most described as laden, suggesting cargoes waiting for clearer transit conditions. Watchpoints remain traffic normalisation, insurance terms, and the reliability of fertiliser routes into upcoming planting cycles.
Capesize average earnings were $20,400/day, with the BCI down 14% w o w to 2,631. Panamax average earnings were $17,700/day, with the BPI up 1% w o w to 1,962. Supramax average earnings were $17,500/day, with the BSI up 3.6% w o w to 1,386. Handysize average earnings were $14,893/day, with the BHI up 6.57% w o w to 827.
Dry Atlantic Analysis – Week 10 2026
Capesize stayed more resilient despite thinner activity, with C3 assessed at $27.75/ton and a 180,200 dwt fixed via Brazil with West Africa option to Qingdao at $27.40/ton.
Panamax sentiment softened on limited fresh enquiry and a growing prompt list, with an 82,000 dwt fixed delivery Gibraltar for a trip via NC South America with redelivery Singapore Japan at $27,000/day.
Supramax improved in the Continent and Mediterranean on fresh scrap enquiry, with a 64,000 dwt fixed via the Continent to the East Mediterranean with scrap at $20,000/day.
Handysize held firmer levels in the Continent and Mediterranean on healthier enquiry, with a 31,000 dwt fixed DOP Santa Marta for a coal trip to the Continent at $21,000/day.
Capesize saw early bunker driven firming fade later in the week, with C5 assessed at $9.60/ton and a 178,000 dwt fixed Port Hedland to Qingdao at $10.25/ton.
Panamax stayed supported by tighter spot availability and steady cargo flow out of Indonesia and Australia, with an 82,500 dwt fixed delivery Mizushima for a trip via NoPac with redelivery Singapore Japan at $21,000/day.
Supramax held steadier levels as Indonesia business supported employment, with a 64,000 dwt fixed via Indonesia to West Coast India at $18,000/day.
Handysize kept momentum in Asia as tightening availability supported bids, with a 32,000 dwt open Japan fixed for a trip to India at $14,250/day.
VLCC remained at exceptionally high levels, with TD15 assessed at WS259 corresponding to a round voyage TCE of $242,800/day and the latest VLCC TCE reported at $289,000/day.
Suezmax benchmarks reset higher, with TD20 assessed at WS330 translating to a round trip TCE just shy of $170,000/day and TD27 around WS320 giving a round trip TCE about $166,500/day, with the latest Suezmax TCE at $189,250/day.
Aframax strengthened, with TD25 assessed at WS393 implying a round trip TCE close to $111,600/day and TD26 near WS437 implying a round trip TCE close to $141,500/day.
LR2 TC20 MEG to UK Continent rose to $8.5m. MR rates rose sharply, with TC2 assessed at WS236 and a round trip TCE of $24,800/day and TC21 US Gulf to Caribbean rising to $2.3m.
VLCC TD3C MEG to China was assessed at WS473 corresponding to a round trip TCE of $486,000/day.
Suezmax strength remained pronounced East of Suez, with TD23 MEG to Mediterranean assessed at about WS525.
Aframax cross Med TD19 was assessed just over WS330 implying a round trip TCE just above $127,200/day.
LR East of Suez lifted sharply, with LR2 TC1 assessed at WS446 with the corresponding TCE stated at about $120,000/day and LR1 TC5 assessed at WS469.
MR East of Suez remained very firm, with risk premiums and higher voyage costs lifting product freight across the region.
Over the past twelve months, Greek interests remained the leading sellers with 309 vessels sold across sectors, versus 137 sales by Chinese sellers. Greek selling was led by 148 dry bulk and 117 tankers, plus 33 containers and 5 gas carriers, while Chinese selling comprised 85 dry bulk, 35 tankers, 10 containers and 5 gas carriers. On the buying side, China ranked first with 216 purchases and Greece followed with 196, with Chinese buying led by 163 dry bulk and 41 tankers and Greek buying led by 109 dry bulk and 62 tankers, plus 19 containers.
Get the Full Allied Weekly Market Report – Week 10 (March 2026)
This post provides a high-level view of Hormuz disruption risks and their impact on fertiliser trade, dry bulk flows, and freight markets.
The full Allied QuantumSea Weekly Market Report – Week 10 includes:
· In-depth analysis of Hormuz disruption and fertiliser supply chain exposure
· Vessel tracking insights across Gulf dry bulk traffic and laden cargo positioning
· Detailed freight reaction across dry bulk, crude and product tanker segments
· Atlantic & Pacific route-level market breakdowns with benchmark fixtures
· Baltic indices, TCE calculations & historical performance comparisons
· Risk premium developments across crude and product tanker routes
· Secondhand S&P transactions, buyer–seller positioning & asset value trends
· Recycling activity and scrap pricing indicators
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