The Strait of Hormuz has shifted from recurring headline risk to an operating constraint, with shipping able to remain legally open while becoming harder and more expensive to run due to security dynamics, war risk insurance capacity, and traffic management.
No formal legal closure has been declared through recognised maritime channels, but advisory and AIS based reporting points to sharply fluctuating vessel movements alongside disruption signals such as GNSS and GPS interference.
War risk capacity has tightened and some insurers have issued cancellation or amendment notices for specified Gulf and Iran adjacent waters, making insurance availability and pricing a key factor in transit decisions.
With limited bypass options, even short disruption windows or risk spikes can feed quickly into delivered cost and price volatility, and spot tanker rates have risen sharply on uncertainty around voyage execution rather than confirmed loss of supply.
Capesize average earnings were $24,211/day with the BCI up 0.2% w o w to 3,056. Panamax average earnings were $17,481/day with the BPI up 5.7% w o w to 1,942. Supramax average earnings were $14,881/day with the BSI up 18.0% w o w to 1,338. Handysize average earnings were $13,976/day with the BHSI up 9.5% w o w to 776.
Dry Atlantic Analysis – Week 09 2026
Capesize Brazil to China led, with March activity in the high $23s per ton on C3 and a 180,000 dwt Tubarao with West Africa option to Qingdao at $25 per ton.
Panamax saw prompt tonnage build and limited fresh enquiry, with an 82,000 dwt fixed APS ECSA for a trip to the Continent with grains at $25,000/day.
Supramax improved in the US Gulf on fresh enquiry, with a 63,000 dwt fixed for a trip via the US Gulf to Spain at $28,000/day. Handysize held firm in the US Gulf on limited prompt supply, with a 40,000 dwt fixed Savannah to the Continent at $28,000/day.
Capesize strengthened as major miners returned, with C5 back into the low $10s per ton and a 180,000 dwt Port Hedland to Qingdao at $10.25 per ton.
Panamax stayed supported by tight prompt availability and steady NoPac flow, with an 82,000 dwt fixed basis CJK for a NoPac trip redelivery South China at $20,750/day.
Supramax was led higher by North Pacific demand, with a 64,000 dwt fixed via Indonesia to Pakistan at $19,000/day. Handysize bids improved across regional trades, with a 34,000 dwt fixed Zhoushan for a trip to West Coast India at $11,600/day.
VLCC held very strong levels, with TD15 West Africa to China firm at $189,000/day and Baltic VLCC earnings reported at $280,940/day as war risk premiums were repriced higher.
Suezmax strengthened, with TD20 West Africa to Continent at $108,000/day and TD27 Guyana to UKC at $111,000/day, keeping earnings above $100,000/day.
Aframax Atlantic stayed firm, with TD25 USG to Continent at $78,200/day and TD26 East Coast Mexico to USG at $104,100/day. LR2 TC20 MEG to UKC was firmer at $45,200/day, with westbound levels supported but still trailing eastbound strength. MR Atlantic was mixed, with TC21 USG to Caribs softer at $49,817/day on steady UKC enquiry but slightly easier freight on some runs.
VLCC surged, with TD3C MEG to China firm at $218,200/day and momentum staying in owners’ favour into late week prints. Suezmax stayed firm East of Suez, with strength linked to high VLCC levels pushing attention toward smaller sizes. Aframax Med softened, with TD19 Med to Med at $78,013/day after a longer list early week weighed before late stabilisation. LR routes led, with LR2 TC1 MEG to Japan firmer at $53,700/day and LR1 TC5 MEG to Japan firmer at $37,300/day. MR East of Suez stayed firm, with TC7 Singapore to ECA firmer at $25,053/day.
Over the past twelve months, Greek interests remained the leading sellers with 315 vessels sold across sectors, versus 141 sales by Chinese sellers. Greek selling was led by 152 dry bulk and 118 tankers, plus 34 containers and 5 gas carriers, while Chinese selling comprised 88 dry bulk, 35 tankers, 10 containers and 5 gas carriers. On the buying side, China ranked first with 225 purchases and Greece followed with 201, with Chinese buying led by 166 dry bulk and 46 tankers and Greek buying led by 111 dry bulk and 64 tankers, alongside 20 container acquisitions.