Capesize gains outweighed Panamax weakness in Week 43, lifting the Baltic Dry Index 5.9% to 2,660. Tankers diverged: the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell 5.1% to 7,171, while the Clean Tanker Index jumped 18.8% to a 12-month high of 3,014. Secondhand trading accelerated to 16 dry bulk and 17 tanker sales, led by geared bulkers and MR/product-chemical tonnage.
Renewed US–China commodity commitments could extend Atlantic vessel employment, but loading programmes remain uncertain. China has committed to import at least 10 million tonnes of US coal annually in 2027 and 2028. US coal shipments to China rose 44% year on year during January–September 2026, yet remained 77% below the same 2024 period. The pledge does not identify export terminals, coal grades or nominated vessels, making any freight-rate gain conditional on actual shipments.
Grain is recovering faster. US dry bulk shipments to China rose 104% year on year in January–September 2026, including a 176% jump in grain; Panamax ships carried 68% of the dry bulk volume, according to BIMCO. Pacific Northwest exports mainly support Pacific tonnage, while US Gulf cargoes can employ Atlantic ships. USDA reported 24 China-bound soybean vessels carrying about 1.6 million tonnes, inspected at Mississippi Gulf terminals from 4–24 September, routing via the Cape of Good Hope. Longer voyages add employment days but raise costs.
US East Coast and Gulf coal exports offer the clearest Atlantic tonne-mile potential, provided Chinese purchases add cargoes instead of diverting existing trade. Substituting US Gulf grain for South American shipments could merely reposition vessels. Proposed tariff reductions covering approximately $30 billion of goods in each direction await implementation, while the trade truce extends to 10 January 2027. Lasting freight gains will depend on loadings, distance and the ballast tonnage available to meet demand.
The BCI climbed 16.7% to 3,791 and Capesize TCE earnings rose 18.9% to $30,877/day. Pacific iron ore underpinned a 21% gain on C5 West Australia–Qingdao; Atlantic C3 Tubarao–Qingdao advanced 13%, although fresh Atlantic enquiry thinned by Friday. A 170,000t/10 Dampier–Qingdao iron ore cargo for 5–7 November was fixed at $14.15/ton, account Rio Tinto.
Limited East Coast South America enquiry and mounting prompt supply drove the BPI and Panamax TCE down 8.9%, to 2,109 and $18,981/day. P1A Atlantic rounds lost 14% and P2A Continent–Far East 9%. Australian coal and North Pacific grain brought some business, though P3A Pacific rounds fell 3%. Nord Condor (88,733 dwt) fixed delivery Zhoushan 25 October via East Coast Australia, redelivery Singapore–Japan with coal, at $24,500/day.
The BSI gained 1.2% to 1,887 and Supramax TCE rose 1.3% to $21,815/day. S2 Pacific rounds and S8 South China–East Coast India each added 2%, while S4A US Gulf–Skaw lost 3%. Giovanni Topic (58,091 dwt) fixed via South Kalimantan to Bangladesh at $33,000/day, account Liannex. Spar Vega (58,018 dwt) was reported from passing East Coast South America to Chittagong at $18,400/day plus an $840,000 ballast bonus.
Handysize TCE earnings and the BHSI both reached 12-month highs, rising 0.9% to $18,361/day and 1,020 respectively. The 3_38 Rio–Skaw route added 5%, against a 4% loss on 4_38 US Gulf–Skaw; Pacific rounds and Southeast Asia–Australia/Japan each gained 1%. Astra Denebola (38,131 dwt) fixed passing Recalada 30 October for West Coast South America at $36,000/day, account Cargill, on subs.
VLCC TCE dropped 13.8% to $761,352/day amid softer demand and rebuilding vessel lists. TD15 West Africa–China lost 23%, TD22 US Gulf–China 20%, and TD3C Middle East Gulf–China 7%. West African enquiry remained thin as Petrobras fixed Brazilian stems at progressively lower rates. The report counted 52 VLCC fixtures over the preceding four weeks, with 138 vessels expected to reach the Gulf in the following four.
Suezmax TCE fell 8.8% to $638,377/day as TD20 West Africa–UK Continent lost 21%. Friday’s West Africa–UK Continent assessment stood at WS715, with prompt ships available and limited enquiry. Reduced eastern demand encouraged ballasting towards West Africa; Mediterranean lists also grew, while Black Sea–Mediterranean owners repeated WS1100 without many fresh tests.
Aframax TCE gained 2.3% to $336,059/day. TD19 Mediterranean rounds rose 21% as North Sea vessels moved to Mediterranean and US employment; Mediterranean indications reached the high WS800s on subjects. By contrast, weaker Asian enquiry replenished lists, with TD14 Southeast Asia–Australia down 13% and Indonesia/up assessed at WS740 for 80,000 tonnes.
Both LR sizes corrected as fresh Arabian Gulf cargo stems thinned. Friday indications stood near WS500 for TC1 LR2 Arabian Gulf–Japan (75,000 tonnes) and WS510 for TC5 LR1 Arabian Gulf–Japan (55,000 tonnes). UK Continent LR1 demand was also limited, and Far East LR2 Korea–East Coast Australia rates lost 200 Worldscale points week on week.
The Atlantic MR basket rose 22.8% to $77,893/day, while the Pacific basket edged 0.4% higher to $81,325/day. TC2_37 Continent–US Atlantic Coast gained 60%, with the UK Continent–US Atlantic Coast assessment near WS230 as prompt availability tightened. In the East, a replenished vessel list briefly pushed TC17 down from WS560 to WS550.
Dry bulk sales jumped to 16 from five the previous week, led by eight Supramax/Ultramax and five Handysize vessels; just three were larger. CAPE ALLIANCE (206,190 dwt, 2007) was reported sold for $36.5 million. Bulgarian interests bought DELMAX66 (66,565 dwt, 2026) for $47 million. Greek buyers took ASTRO POLARIS (37,054 dwt, 2014) at $20 million; Chinese buyers were reported for SUNNY SANDRA (37,154 dwt, 2012), at an undisclosed price.
Tanker sales increased to 17 from 11, with 13 in MR and product/chemical tonnage. Greek interests acquired the IMO II sisters BOW ELM and BOW LIND (2011) en bloc for $62 million. Chinese interests were reported for AFRA MARE (2008) at $59 million and FG ROTTERDAM (2012) at $24 million. The LR2 KASTOS (2025) was reported sold to KOTC for $120 million; specifications and survey dates remain critical to price comparisons.
Through 23 October 2026, the report recorded 1,444 YTD secondhand sales totalling 123,210,506 dwt: 624 dry bulk, 556 tankers, 136 containers, 59 gas carriers and 69 others. In dry bulk, Supramax/Ultramax led with 241 sales, followed by Handysize (139), Panamax/Kamsarmax (137), Capesize/VLOC (61), Post-Panamax (44) and small bulk (2). Tanker sales were led by MR (166), VLCC (124), small tankers (80), Suezmax/LR3 (71), Aframax/LR2 (69) and Panamax/LR1 (46).
Nationality statistics cover the past twelve months, not 2026 YTD. Greek interests bought 242 vessels and sold 324, versus 219 purchases and 165 sales by Chinese interests. Greek purchases included 111 bulk carriers and 102 tankers; Chinese purchases included 169 bulk carriers and 36 tankers.
This roundup covers the Atlantic implications of US–China commodity trade, freight by vessel size and secondhand markets.
The full Allied QuantumSea Weekly Market Report – Week 43 includes:
· China’s 2027–2028 US coal purchase commitment and Atlantic bulk employment prospects
· January–September 2026 grain flows and US Gulf versus Pacific Northwest exports
· Tariff-policy uncertainty and tonne-mile effects of Cape-routed soybean voyages
· Dry and wet freight indices, TCE earnings, regional route data and reported fixtures
· Secondhand vessel transactions, values and 2026 sector/size statistics
· Past-twelve-month nationality data, newbuilding orders and indicative prices
· Recycling transactions and scrap-price assessments
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