Dry bulk softened in Week 40 as Capesize losses outweighed a small Supramax gain. The Baltic Dry Index fell 8.1% to 3,148. Tankers strengthened sharply: the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 22.7% to 6,586 and the Baltic Clean Tanker Index gained 11.8% to 2,414, both at their reported 12-month highs. Bulker sales increased, led by Panamax and Kamsarmax units, while fewer tanker deals still attracted substantial disclosed capital. US crude export logistics remain central to the tanker outlook.
Strong US output supports alternative supply, but a rapid export response depends on how many barrels can reach buyers. EIA monthly data released on 30 September put January–July 2026 production at an average 13.76 million barrels/day, up 2.0% year on year. Exports reached 5.73 million barrels/day in May before falling 37.9% to 3.56 million in July. These national export figures cover all transport modes. High production alone does not demonstrate immediately available spare capacity.
Preliminary exports averaged 3.78 million barrels/day over the four weeks ending 25 September, down 7.1% year on year. Lower refinery runs could release more crude, if overseas demand and freight economics support it. Loading remains a practical constraint: Ingleside can put up to 1.5 million barrels directly onto a VLCC, with larger cargoes requiring offshore transfers. Aframax availability and transfer time therefore influence export costs; delayed offshore terminal projects leave the timing of more direct loading capacity uncertain.
Estimates reported on 29 September put Hormuz crude and condensate flows at about 80% of pre-conflict levels, or 65–70% when refined products and LPG are included. Those estimates predate the security incidents reported on 5 October. Cargoes bypassing Hormuz must also be distinguished from strait transits. Additional US exports could support long-haul VLCC employment while requiring smaller feeder tankers; Middle Eastern shuttle operations also occupy capacity. Partial flow recovery therefore offers no assurance of lower freight pressure.
Capesize TCE earnings fell 13.7% to $42,228/day and the BCI declined 12.8% to 5,042. More Brazil fixtures and firmer West Australian business emerged on Friday, but C3 Tubarao–Qingdao and C2 Tubarao–Rotterdam each lost 11% over the week; C5 West Australia–Qingdao fell 8%. Reported North Atlantic tonnage was relatively balanced for late October and early November. Shandong De Tai fixed Seven Islands–Qingdao at $48/ton.
Panamax TCE earnings slipped 1.4% to $21,349/day, with the BPI down 1.5% to 2,372. Atlantic demand thinned despite tight southern tonnage. Indonesian and North Pacific demand also eased, leaving Australia the most active Pacific area. P3A Pacific rounds fell 4%. Shen Hua 808 fixed an Indonesia–Malaysia coal trip at around $19,250–19,500/day.
Supramax TCE earnings and the BSI each gained 0.2%, to $20,585/day and 1,789. Atlantic Ultramax scrap trips from the Continent to the East Mediterranean were reported at $37,000–39,000/day. Ocean Destiny fixed Richards Bay–West Coast India coal at $22,000/day plus a $220,000 ballast bonus. Pacific rounds gained 1%; China–Bangladesh clinker bids of $27,500/day for an Ultramax remained bids, rather than confirmed fixtures.
Handysize TCE earnings and the BHSI each fell 0.4%, to $18,117/day and 1,007. Prompt US Gulf tonnage was oversupplied, with US Gulf–Skaw down 3%, although Skaw–US Gulf gained 4%. Pacific availability remained tight despite reduced holiday fixing. Darya Mahi fixed CJK–Southeast Asia at $21,500/day.
VLCC TCE earnings rose 10.1% to $786,245/day, their reported 12-month high. Late fixing followed an initially longer Arabian Gulf and Red Sea list, while West African enquiry tightened Atlantic supply. Fujairah–Far East business was placed in the mid/high WS700s; West Africa–East was on subjects at WS600. TD15 West Africa–China TCE gained 27%, TD22 US Gulf–China 6% and TD3C Middle East Gulf–China 4%.
Suezmax TCE earnings jumped 107.0% to $619,858/day, a reported 12-month high. Extra West African stems met limited end-month availability, pushing West Africa–UK Continent to WS825 and encouraging consideration of westward ballasting from the East. TD20 West Africa–UK Continent TCE rose 117%, TD6 Black Sea–Mediterranean 101% and TD23 Arabian Gulf–Mediterranean 22%.
Aframax TCE earnings increased 18.2% to $276,913/day, their reported 12-month high. Outstanding Asian cargoes faced a shorter vessel list, with Indonesia-up assessed at 80,000 tonnes × WS560. Across the Atlantic, cross-Mediterranean business was placed at WS620–630. TD26 East Coast Mexico–US Gulf TCE gained 40% and TD9 Caribbean–US Gulf 39%, while TD7 North Sea–Continent fell 3%.
Limited LR1 and LR2 availability supported an $11 million westbound LR2 fixture and an eastbound LR1 fixture at WS520. Oman–Japan STS LR2 business was reported on subjects at WS485, approximately $7.6 million. Sikka–West Africa was confirmed at $10 million, while Sikka–UK Continent was reported on subjects at $11 million.
The Atlantic MR basket climbed 63.5% to $64,218/day, while the Pacific basket rose 24.1% to its reported 12-month high of $87,628/day. Continued UK Continent enquiry supported Atlantic business; incoming eastern ballasters were absorbed. TC2_37 Continent–US Atlantic Coast TCE gained 128%, TC14 US Gulf–Continent 77% and TC12 Sikka–Japan 32%.
Weekly dry bulk transactions rose to 16 vessels from 12, led by six Panamax/Kamsarmax units, four Supramaxes and three Capesizes, alongside two Handysizes and one small bulker. Chinese buyers selected one Capesize, one Panamax and three older Supramaxes. BULK JOYANCE, 176,021 dwt, was reported sold to Chinese buyers for $31.1 million. Greek interest included the 82,031 dwt WORLD DIANA at $40 million and the 33,782 dwt BAM PROTEUS at $9.5 million.
The tanker list contracted to 15 vessels from 19, comprising four LR1s, four MRs, two VLCCs, two Suezmax entries, two Aframaxes and one product/chemical tanker. One Suezmax entry is a newbuilding resale. The two VLCCs accounted for $322 million of the $869.4 million disclosed across 14 priced vessels. EUROSPIRIT was reported at $153 million and SEA LEOPARD at $169 million. Turkish buyers acquired two LR1s and Cyprus-based buyers two MRs; the weekly commentary identifies no Greek or Chinese tanker purchase.
Through 2 October 2026, the report records 1,338 vessel sales totalling 116.4 million dwt. Dry bulk accounted for 593, tankers 506, containers 129, gas carriers 52 and other vessels 58. Dry bulk sales comprised 224 Supra/Ultramax, 133 Pana/Kamsarmax, 130 Handysize, 61 Capesize/VLOC, 43 Post-Panamax and two small bulkers. Tanker sales comprised 152 MR, 122 VLCC, 70 small tankers, 61 Suezmax/LR3, 59 Aframax/LR2 and 42 Panamax/LR1.
Nationality figures cover the past twelve months, separately from YTD activity. Greek interests recorded 240 purchases and 334 sales, versus 223 purchases and 161 sales for China. Greek purchases included 115 bulkers and 98 tankers; Chinese purchases included 172 bulkers and 37 tankers.
This roundup covers US crude export capacity, freight by vessel size and secondhand market activity.
The full Allied QuantumSea Weekly Market Report – Week 40 includes:
· US production, exports and the role of domestic refinery demand
· VLCC loading constraints and offshore transfer requirements
· Hormuz flow estimates and their implications for tanker employment
· Dry bulk and tanker earnings, indices, route movements and reported fixtures
· Secondhand transactions, vessel values and 2026 activity by sector and size
· Past-twelve-month buyer and seller nationality statistics
· Newbuilding orders and recycling market data
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